Market Recovery Coefficients: Econometric Resilience

This article defines the quantitative metrics used to model the speed and depth of financial market recovery following systemic geopolitical shocks.

1. The Recovery Coefficient ($C_r$)

The Recovery Coefficient is a measure of how quickly an asset returns to its pre-crisis moving average.

$$ C_r = \frac{\Delta P_{recovery}}{\Delta T_{duration}} $$

2. Historical Benchmarks

| Shock Event | Initial Drawdown | Recovery Time (Months) | $C_r$ |

| :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- |

| 1973 Oil Crisis | -48% | 72 | 0.67 |

| 2008 Financial Crisis | -56% | 60 | 0.93 |

| 2026 Iran Crisis | -35% (Peak) | 14 (Est) | 2.50 |

The higher $C_r$ in 2026 is attributed to the dominance of algorithmic trading and "Power Havens" establishing alternate settlement paths.

See [Conflict Market Patterns Hub](ConflictMarketPatternsHub) for real-time tracking.