Market Recovery Coefficients: Econometric Resilience

This article defines the quantitative metrics used to model the speed and depth of financial market recovery following systemic geopolitical shocks.

1. The Recovery Coefficient ( $C_r$ )

The Recovery Coefficient is a measure of how quickly an asset returns to its pre-crisis moving average.

C_r = \frac{\Delta P_{recovery}}{\Delta T_{duration}}

Shock Event	Initial Drawdown	Recovery Time (Months)	$C_r$
1973 Oil Crisis	-48%	72	0.67
2008 Financial Crisis	-56%	60	0.93
2026 Iran Crisis	-35% (Peak)	14 (Est)	2.50

The higher $C_r$ in 2026 is attributed to the dominance of algorithmic trading and "Power Havens" establishing alternate settlement paths.